We collaborate with multiple UN agencies, the World Bank, Inter-American Development Bank-IADB, and various foreign governments, foundations, and NGOs.

General Equilibrium Models for an Ex-ante Evaluation of Different Food Procurement Modalities under the School Feeding Program in Senegal

The Government of Senegal’s on-going school feeding program (SFP) provides support to schools in the form of food, cash, or vouchers. The primary goal of the program is to improve children’s nutrition and health, school attendance, and capacity to learn.

Consultancy to Develop a Local Economy-wide Impact Evaluation (LEWIE) Model for Malawi 

Kagin’s Consulting LLC, together with the International Food Policy Research Institute, will develop a Local Economy-wide modeling framework covering a series of districts in Malawi and implement a series of quantitative modeling analyses of the multiplier impacts of two interventions: rural road improvement and matching grants to private-sector agriculture firms who engage smallholders in commercial value chains. This work will support the Millennium Challenge Corporation compact development process in this country.

The Economic Impact Assessment of The World Food Program Expenditures

The World Food Programme’s (WFP) total portfolio in Regional Bureau Nairobi (RBN) countries is more than USD 2 billion annually. In 2019, the RBN region moved 1.1 million MT of food throughout the region. It disbursed USD 270 million in cash to 5.4 million beneficiaries in the countries covered by RBN. . It procured and supplied more than 500,000 MT of food from local, regional, and global sources. 

Assessing the Economic Impacts of Protected Areas on Regional Economies in Zambia, Fiji, Nepal, and Brazil

Protected areas serve as a critical refuge for endangered biological resources. They also can create economic benefits as nature tourist destinations. Benefits include park entry fees and the income tourists spend at lodges and other tourism businesses, but they also include the many indirect effects that visitor spending creates for businesses and households around the parks and in nearby market towns.

Integrated Demand Analysis Platform: Economic Disruptions Caused by COVID-19

This project seeks to support the World Food Programme (WFP) in better understanding economic disruptions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic on households and at the local economy level. It aims to facilitate country-specific situation analysis as a consequence of the COVID-19 outbreak, but is also a continuation of the previous assignment (May 1st-Nov 30th 2019); hence, it provides a basis for improvements and adjustments of the current version of the Integrated Demand Analysis Platform (IDAP), as well.

Beyond Experiments: Local Economy-wide Impact Evaluation

Includes studies carried out with the IADB, World Bank, FAO, UNICEF, and other organizations

This book and accompanying website show how to use general-equilibrium simulation methods to document direct and spillover effects of government policies, development projects, and other treatments. This book won the AAEA Quality of Communications Award.

Agricultural Development Impact Evaluation

(Giannini Foundation of Agricultural Economics)

This article in the recent Handbook of Agricultural Economics reviews studies of impacts of agricultural interventions as well as of other treatments on agricultural outcomes, showing that no single tool is sufficient to evaluate impacts; different methods are appropriate in different situations; all methods have weakness as well as strengths; and combinations of approaches often can offer a deeper and more reliable understanding of impacts than stand-alone methods.

Local-economy impacts of poverty programs in seven African countries

United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), UNICEF, UK Aid.
Findings appear in various journal articles and here. Ghana’s President John Dramani Mahama cited our key finding for his country while opening the Pan-African Conference on Inequalities: “LEAP has had a positive impact on local economic growth. Beneficiaries spend about 80 percent of their income on the local economy. Every GH1 transferred to a beneficiary has the potential of increasing the local economy by GH2.50.” President Mahama’s goal in citing our work was to demonstrate that social protection and economic growth can be complements—an insight that no other research had provided.


Government of Uganda, the United Nations International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD), Kalangala Oil Palm Growers Trust (KOPGT) and Bidco Uganda Ltd.

A local economy-wide impact evaluation (LEWIE) simulation model is used to quantify the full impact of a large-scale oil palm production and processing project on residents of Bugala Island in Uganda’s Kalangala District. We use an econometric analysis of data collected from grower and non-grower households to validate findings on selected outcomes.


General equilibrium tragedy of the commons (IADB)
Fishing activities have strong linkages with other sectors in local economies. Because of this, unmanaged resources cause inefficient allocations of inputs across all sectors, and the effects of resource management spill into other sectors, creating a GE Tragedy of the Commons. Compensating losers is likely to be a prerequisite to the successful implementation of sustainable resource management measures in poor economies.



This paper was written to make development practitioners aware of simulation approaches for tourism impact analysis and of how to integrate these approaches into their project proposals, budgets, and terms of reference for expert consultants. Simulation approaches are particularly useful when experimental or economic approaches for project evaluation are not feasible.


United Nations World Food Program (WFP)
The model was used to measure total economic impacts of refugees and refugee assistance, including the indirect spillovers they generate. Monte Carlo methods make it possible to construct confidence bounds around simulation results.
MI design